MineFund Independent Natural Resources Analysis & Analytics

Silver Proves Toughest Hurdle in 2011 Price Forecasting Competition

DENVER (MineFund.com) -- At that half way mark of 2011 a handful of precious metal price forecasters are proving hard to dislodge from the top rankings. Two have been especially prominent in maintaining their overall high rankings despite considerable volatility.

It is also notable that non-professional forecasters are given the paid professionals a run for their money. However, the cohort of London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) forecasters remains - as with nearly every year - a very good service for lay investors. The LBMA analysts are, on average, 85% accurate for the year-to-date for all metals.

The leader of the 2011 forecasting competition at the half way point is a participant from Wisconsin who goes by the nomme du guerre “waitthatsmytoupee”. Although he doesn’t hold a first in any one category, his overall rankings have been consistently high thanks to solid forecasting accuracy scores of 96% and higher for every metal.

Peter Fertig of Quantitative Commodity Research is running a close second to waitthatsmytoupee, but has a substantial lead over his LBMA colleagues. Indeed, if it wasn’t for a relatively poor forecast in silver where Fertig badly under-estimated the metals spike above $40/oz, he would easily be the overall leader.

He’s not alone though. Silver has undone many forecasts.

Fertig holds 27th place in silver, but has three firsts in gold, platinum and palladium. His challenge will be to hold those rankings given that in prior years the podium is usually determined by what happens in the third quarter.

Fertig is being chased hard in the gold competition by David Wilson of Societe General, and Peter Botjos who both have accuracy scores better than 98%

Last year’s overall winner, Frederic Panizzuti of MKS Finance, is currently ranked 20th with his best showing in silver (5th) where his bullishness has paid off. But that same bullishness has not been kind in the other metals... yet.

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